Charting the markets with IG TV: Safe havens ahoy! But do you know where they are?

A very brave Joshua Mahoney of the IG platform faces an incredibly tricky time explaining the carnage in all sorts of markets on the morning of Monday 9th March 2020 – plus, trying to forecast the next step. Well done, we say, as this is precisely the time and space when we need clear advice and cool heads.

Like me, he’s focused on the weekend’s 30% drop in crude oil prices – rather than blaming everything on the Corona virus – and the fact that this has caused a massive drop in developed market indices: think BP, Eni, Exxon, Chevron, Petrobras and YPF. All have a major weightings in their respective indices, and are responsible for a big chunk of dividend payments.

He explains that US stock futures are stuck ‘limit down’ – and if you don’t know the concept, look it up – which, coupled with gold volatility and US dollar weakness make for very unsettling bed-fellows.

He claims that recent surveys have put the chances of another Fed 100 basis point interest rate cut at 63%, another 27% of those polled suggesting a 75 basis point cut.

Japan, he suggests, has regained its safe-haven status – something I think might be a belated knee-jerk reaction – as has gold. What is very interesting are the statistics of IG customers long versus short positioning. Asking: ‘’are the bulls going to come back into play’’, their stats say on Germany’s DAX 60% of clients are long, while with Italy’s MIB 62% are short, and in cable 58% are long.

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About Nicole Elliott

Nicole Elliott

A graduate of the London School of Economics and Political Science (BSc Social Psychology) Nicole Elliott has worked in banks in the City of London for the last 30 years. Whether in sales, trading or forecasting technical analysis has always been the bedrock of her thinking. Key expertise lies within all areas of treasury: foreign exchange, money markets, fixed income and commodities.

She has also added to the body of knowledge of the industry writing the first western book on Ichimoku Cloud Charts. Strong media links and a cult following are due to her prescient calls on the markets and often entertaining format.

Nicole can be contacted at trending@sta-uk.org

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