Robin Wilkin, Director of Global Cross Asset Strategy at Lloyd’s Banking Group, uses R. N. Elliott’s wave count theory as his main technical analysis tool. Market professionals – and amateurs even more so – often find this topic tricky and, like Marmite, it tends to divide opinion. Rabid fans and naysayers can be heard arguing the case ad nauseam and perhaps because of this, the theory is subject to the vagaries of fashion.
At IFTA’s 2014 annual conference in London, Robin gave a clear, precise outline on the subject, acknowledging its limitations while believing firmly that, because it’s a pattern of human nature, it provides the best roadmap across all financial markets. Like me, he believes these must be seen as an interconnected whole – a jigsaw to be worked on.
I was surprised that he said the method works especially well for foreign exchange because, measuring one currency relative to another, it’s hard to say what’s going up and what’s on the way down. He picks great and unusual examples to illustrate the point – for example the Indian rupee and the price of sugar; the Australian dollar against the cost of copper and its nearest neighbour, the New Zealand dollar.
He admits that he’s not too precise about specific chart levels and prefers to use Fibonacci clusters; he is also very wary of round numbers, like $1.2000 per pound. In other words, slippage is allowed for and he adapts to changing situations.
Well worth watching this presentation. Click here to view.