Review: Fortune Tellers, Walter A Friedman

An idea suggested by STA members, and one I wholeheartedly support, is not a ‘Book Club’ as such (way too bourgeois) but a forum to showcase and discuss books that are either new, useful, or beautiful (to paraphrase William Morris); ones that have inspired, shed new light, or are plain amusing.

With this in mind I have picked ‘Fortune Tellers’, even though it’s not strictly about technical analysis. Rather it’s an introduction and exposé of some of the very first US men (and they are all blokes, though some of their wives helped) who tried by various means to forecast, and make a living, out of predicting stock market moves. The sort of thing which is now bread and butter for technical analysts, and for all too many economists also.

FortuneTellers

While perhaps not going into enough detail about their methods, it does conjure up the sort of thinking and background they were working in – all the more interesting because they cover the stock market crashes of 1907 and 1929. Kicking off with Roger Babson, who is considered the founder of today’s economic forecasting services and a pioneer in technical analysis, though others like J. K. Galbraith thought his work ‘hocus-pocus mysticism’; it just goes to show that there is nothing new under the sun.

Through Irving Fisher and his mathematical models, to a name you are all familiar with, John Moody, doyen of credit ratings and fundamental analysis supremo, the book skips elegantly though their thinking and the problems turning these into profitable businesses.

A word of warning though from Professor Pietra Rivoli of the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University: ‘Each man [in the book] has nothing if not hubris; such overconfidence was not new then, nor is it obsolete now. Studies find that “high-hubris’ individuals are more likely to overpay for acquisitions or commit fraud’.

Do please write in with suggestions of books we might delve into and don’t forget that STA members have access to a dedicated space in The Barbican library to browse books on technical analysis.

 

ISBN 978-0-691-15911-9 (hardback)

Princeton University Press 2014

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Posted in Finance, Markets, STA news, Technical Analysis, Trading, Trending
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Disclaimer

The views and opinions expressed on the STA’s blog do not necessarily represent those of the Society of Technical Analysts (the “STA”), or of any officer, director or member of the STA.

The STA makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information on the blog or found by following any link on blog, and none of the STA, STA Administrative Services or any current or past executive board members are liable for any errors, omissions, or delays in this information or any losses, injuries, or damages arising from its display or use.

None of the information on the STA’s blog constitutes investment advice.

About Nicole Elliott

Nicole Elliott

A graduate of the London School of Economics and Political Science (BSc Social Psychology) Nicole Elliott has worked in banks in the City of London for the last 30 years. Whether in sales, trading or forecasting technical analysis has always been the bedrock of her thinking. Key expertise lies within all areas of treasury: foreign exchange, money markets, fixed income and commodities.

She has also added to the body of knowledge of the industry writing the first western book on Ichimoku Cloud Charts. Strong media links and a cult following are due to her prescient calls on the markets and often entertaining format.

Nicole can be contacted at trending@sta-uk.org

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