Peak – AOD Fall Intervals as an indicator of US Stock Market Corrections

In our Spring 2017 Market Technician journal, David McMinn did an article predicting we were due a sell-off in the stock market in December 2017.

The actual event arrived later than expected in early February 2018 with two one day falls over -4.00% in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). At the time, the slump was only expected to be a temporary correction based on historical precedent. All major annual one day (AOD) falls (≥ -4.00%) that that occurred shortly after a record high, happened in a brief correction. This trend has persisted over the past 120 years and was first proposed by McMinn (1997). In contrast, large AOD falls taking place well after a record peak, usually indicated the beginning of a bear market. Both trends were very consistent throughout DJIA history.

David McMinn has written an addendum to his original article. To read, please click here.


Share Share Share Share Share
Posted in General

The views and opinions expressed on the STA’s blog do not necessarily represent those of the Society of Technical Analysts (the “STA”), or of any officer, director or member of the STA.

The STA makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information on the blog or found by following any link on blog, and none of the STA, STA Administrative Services or any current or past executive board members are liable for any errors, omissions, or delays in this information or any losses, injuries, or damages arising from its display or use.

None of the information on the STA’s blog constitutes investment advice.

About Nicole Elliott

Nicole Elliott

A graduate of the London School of Economics and Political Science (BSc Social Psychology) Nicole Elliott has worked in banks in the City of London for the last 30 years. Whether in sales, trading or forecasting technical analysis has always been the bedrock of her thinking. Key expertise lies within all areas of treasury: foreign exchange, money markets, fixed income and commodities.

She has also added to the body of knowledge of the industry writing the first western book on Ichimoku Cloud Charts. Strong media links and a cult following are due to her prescient calls on the markets and often entertaining format.

Nicole can be contacted at

Posts by Date

Sign up to the STA newsletter

Sign up to the STA newsletter

Our newsletter is designed to bring you the latest information on technical analysis, educational courses, conferences and events . Sign up now!

Previous Newsletter Archive

* required

Sign up to the STA newsletter